Ohio Has Recovered All Private Sector Jobs Lost During the Pandemic

Key Economic Insights

• U.S.: Real GDP advanced at a 1.1% annual rate in Q1 2023. Durable goods orders and industrial production both posted monthly gains in March. Core PCE rose at a 4.6% annual rate in March.
• Ohio: Ohio had a record number of business creations in Q1 2023, totaling 51,881. Ohio’s unemployment rate in March (3.8%) ties the lowest in state history.

U.S. Insights

U.S. Real GDP increased at a 1.1% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023, according to the "advance" estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose to a 4.2% annual rate in March, down from 5.1% in February. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose at a 4.6% annual rate during the month, down slightly from 4.7% in February. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to a 5.0% annual rate in March, down from 6.0% in February. Core CPI rose to a 5.6% annual rate during the month, up slightly from 5.5% in February. The Producer Price Index (PPI) declined to a 2.7% annual rate in March, down from 4.9% in February.  Core PPI rose at a 3.6% annual rate during the month, down from 4.5% in February.

Compensation costs increased 1.2% for civilian workers, seasonally adjusted, from December 2022 to March 2023. Over the year, total compensation rose 4.8%, wages and salaries rose 5.0%, and benefit costs rose 4.5%.

Durable goods orders advanced 3.2% in March, posting the first monthly gain in 2023. Transportation equipment led the increase, rising 9.1% during the month. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3%.  Industrial production advanced 0.4% in March. On an annual basis, total industrial production was 0.5% higher in March 2023 compared to March 2022. Capacity utilization rose to 79.8% during the month, a rate that is above its long run (1972-2022) average.  U.S. retail sales fell 1.0% in March, the second consecutive month of decline, as consumers continue to face high inflation and rising interest rates.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased 0.8 points in March to 90.1, marking the 15th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. 24% percent of owners reported inflation as their single most important business problem, down four points from February.  The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined to a 9-month low of 101.3 in April, down from 104.0 in March. The Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 1.2% in March to 108.4. The index was down 4.5% over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023.  Weekly jobless claims decreased by 16,000 to a total of 230,000 during the week ended April 22. Continuing claims decreased by 3,000 to a total of 1.858M during the week ended April 15.

Ohio Employment & Economic Insights

Ohio’s unemployment rate declined to 3.8% in March, down from 3.9% in February and matching the lowest level in state history. The labor force participation rate rose to 61.5% during the month, up from 61.4% in February. Preliminary data shows that as of March 2023, Ohio recovered all private sector jobs lost during the pandemic. Private employment (SA) in March 2023 totaled 4,819,700, 4,200 jobs higher than February 2020 levels.  Ohio recorded 51,881 new business creations in the first quarter of 2023, the highest first quarter total in state history, ending the quarter strong with 18,881 business filings in March.  Ohio saw an estimated $233.2M in Venture Capital deal activity across 47 deals during the first quarter of 2023, according to preliminary data from the Q1 2023 Pitchbook – NVCA Venture Monitor report. The total value of VC deal activity in Ohio ranked #17 nationally in the first quarter.

Chief Executive named Ohio the #11 best state for business in 2023 in their annual Best and Worst States for Business survey. More than $3M in Roadwork Development Grant funding will be awarded to four Ohio communities to improve connectivity to local businesses through roadwork improvements. Monroe County will receive $1.5M in support of American Mine Services; Fairfield County will receive $1.2M in support of DHL Express; Cincinnati will receive $200,000 in support of Medpace; and Delaware will receive $125,000 in support of Ohio Steel Industries. The Ohio Minority Development Financing Advisory Board (MDFAB) approved more than $2.1M in support for six Ohio businesses in April. The funding will assist minority- and women-owned businesses with sustaining and expanding their operations.

The Ohio State University (#8 Nursing, #25 Education, #27 Engineering, #30 Law, #30 Medicine, #44 Business); Case Western Reserve University (#14 Nursing, #24 Medicine); University of Cincinnati (#41 Nursing, #43 Medicine); Ursuline College (#34 Nursing); and University of Dayton (#37 Engineering) ranked among the top 50 in U.S. News & World Report’s 2023-2024 Best Grad Schools. The New York Times recently featured a front-page story on Ohio’s leadership in the transformation of the auto industry. Travel + Leisure has named Columbus one of its 11 Best Places to Travel in July, a list that also includes destinations all over North America and even Croatia.

Ohio Company News

• Arrive Logistics has opened an office in Columbus, employing 20. Expansion plans expect to add more than 100 more in coming years.
• Petra Power, a manufacturer of solid oxide fuel cells, plans to establish its HQ in Solon, expecting to create up to 20 jobs in two years.
• Hohman Plating expects to invest $12.5M in a 26,500 SF expansion in Dayton.
• Toledo Solar has won an $8.8M Solar Manufacturing Incubator grant from the U.S. DOE to demonstrate the application of semitransparent cadmium telluride solar panels to windows.
• First Solar as won a $7.3M Solar Manufacturing Incubator grant from the U.S. DOE to develop a more efficient residential rooftop product.
• Frayt, an Uber-like last-mile delivery platform in Cincinnati, has raised $7M in Series A, led by Refinery Ventures.
• Omni Fiber plans to invest $7M to add gigabit fiber access in Wilmington.
• Metronet has started construction of its 100% fiber optic network in Bellbrook, its 13^th city.
• Verizon Business will deploy a private 5G network at the new Cleveland Clinic hospital in Mentor.
• Synchrony Financial officially opened its new 50,000 SF office in West Chester Township, part of a project announced in July 2022 to create 300 new jobs and $16.5M in new payroll.
• Sherwin-Williams plans to sell its Chinese architectural paint business to Dutch paint company Akzo Nobel for an undisclosed price.
• Veeam has been ranked the #1 global provider for data replication and protection software by International Data Corporation.

For more information, contact:

Drew Peters & Matthew Ellerbrock, JobsOhio Research

peters@jobsohio.com / ellerbrock@jobsohio.com

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